Russian should pay war respirations

Let’s fast forward to the end of military hostilities between Ukraine and Russia. We can assume that the two countries will enter negotiations with a strategy to pursue their national interests. Russia was the clear aggressor and by all accounts has suffered a military setback on the battlefield. Ukraine’s military has acquitted itself well in battle, though it was only able to do so with billions in Western military and humanitarian aid. Moscow employed a strategy of targeting civilians and Ukraine’s infrastructure. Ukrainian negotiators will push for the rebuilding of their country. I believe that all of the equities favor the Ukrainians. The negotiations will stall over who pays for the rebuilding of Ukraine. Based upon rhetoric and actions, I do not believe that the Western coalition has carefully considered this integral component of any diplomatic solution of the current fighting.

In a post appearing in Politico’s opinion section, titled “How to End the Ukraine Crisis in 4 Steps,” Alexander Dynkin and Thomas Graham, expertly discussed the issues confronting the end of the crisis. The authors offered the following observation:

The United States will be reluctant to revise a a European order that has served its interests extraordinarily well for the past three decades. Absent significant adjustments, however, intermittent crises such as the current standoff are inevitable. A lasting peace requires that Russia’s interests be accommodated so that it has a stake in that order. The challenge is to find a way forward that satisfies at least Moscow’s minimal security requirements without requiring the United States and its allies to compromise their core principles and interests.

Clearly, there is more at stake in ending-conflict negotiations than just the interests of the two combatants. What is certain is that a return to the status quo that existed before the war will not be possible under any circumstances. The West might roll back some of its sanctions but not all of them. Russia will not be allowed to return to “doing business as usual.” The issues are complex and there is no good solution that everyone can live with.

The thorniest issue to be resolved is who should pay for the rebuilding of Ukraine. German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said that Ukraine should be rebuilt with a Marshal Plan. Others suggest that funds for rebuilding Ukraine should come from the Sanctions imposed on Russia including its seized assets. This is attractive rhetoric but I do not believe that the U.S. wants to invest more billions into rebuilding Ukraine, nor does it have the legal authority to seize Russian property to fund a rebuilding campaign.

In a perfect world, Russians should be called upon to pay Ukraine war reparations. Many political leaders and so-called experts believe that any negotiated settlement must include Russia’s payment or reparations to Ukraine. There is absolutely no doubt that Russia would never agree to pay Ukraine anything to rebuild. Also, Russia (Russians) will pay a dime to neighboring countries for their efforts in trying to alleviate the humanitarian crisis that its military action has caused.

An examination of history indicates that reparations have only been paid by militarily defeated countries.  Importantly, Sergei Rudskoi, head of the Russian General Staff’s Main Operational Directorate said in a televised news briefing that Russia was scaling back its military operations. According to this official, Russia had successfully completed the first phase of its military operations. If this is the case (I have my doubts that it is) the demand for reparations becomes politically untenable. Yet, I still believe that Russia should pay hard currency towards the rebuilding of Ukraine for its transgressions

The West and Ukraine will have no leverage to demand anything in the way of reparations if the sanctions are lifted and the current autocracy of Putin remains in power. The passage of time will allow the West to advance its objectives. There is little doubt that time works against the Russians. Yet, Ukrainians want to rebuild their society as soon as possible. The Russians understand these competing interests and will work towards widening the political divides of the international coalition that stands against it.  Wartime alliances often fall apart when hostilities come to an end. Only time will tell in this situation.

Today, March 26, 2022, U.S. President delivered what was billed as a major address in Warsaw Poland. The speech touched upon some of the concerns of the Ukrainians, Some of the President’s other comments probably unsettled some of America’s coalition members. I believe that the President spoke too long and tried to say too much given his allotment of time, At times It seemed like President Biden was making a campaign pitch for the Democratic party in advance of mid-term elections. Regardless, it is too early to tell if his speech enhanced Western unity or widened existing fissures.

U.S. officials said that President Biden at times spoke directly to the Russian people. He warned them that “Putin should no longer remain in power.” This call for a change in Russian leadership did not sit well with the U.S.’s Western allies. It is doubtful that his remarks reached the average Russian. They may never know what he really said. Russia has imposed strict censorship of all news circulated within the country.

President Biden and his administration seem to rest their policy decision and actions relative to the Ukrainian war on a misconception; Russian policy is being controlled by an all-powerful autocrat, Vladimir Putin. I will concede that he might wield too much power; however, Putin is not the only Russian guiding and controlling Russia’s actions. Biden’s remarks probably upset Russia’s ruling elite power brokers. Any comparisons between Putin and Stalin are inappropriate and unhelpful. Today’s Russia is vastly different than the Soviet Union in the 40s and 50s. I think that the President’s speech will make a negotiated settlement to the war more difficult to obtain.

What was missing from President Biden’s speech was any mention of the rebuilding of Ukraine and the return of the refugees to their homes. Most Americans do not see the conflict in Ukraine as vital to the security interests of the U.S. Consequently, U.S. taxpayers are going to become more resistant to investing billions in aid into Ukraine. The Biden Administration could not sell Americans on its Build Back America initiative. It is highly unlikely that Americans will choose to invest billions in Ukraine over investing in their own country. There will be no political appetite for investing in post-conflict Ukraine if it is controlled by Russia. Many Western nations are assuming a wait-and-see position as to the military outcome in Ukraine.